Why Today’s Housing Inventory Shows a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon

Today’s Concerns

Great info. from Keeping Current Matters on the blog today, regarding a topic we are asked about frequently!

You may remember the housing crash in 2008, even if you didn’t own a home at the time. If you’re worried there’s going to be a repeat, there’s good news – the current housing market is different from 2008! On the flip side, if you have been holding out to purchase until there is a “crash”, give us a call to discuss your options and why that might not be the best way to meet your goals! 

One important reason is there aren’t enough homes for sale. That means there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply as in 2008. For the market to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, and the data doesn’t show that happening. Housing supply comes from three main sources:

• Homeowners deciding to sell their houses

• Newly built homes

• Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)

Here’s a closer look at today’s housing inventory! 

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Although housing supply did grow compared to last year, it’s still low. The current months’ supply is below the norm. If you look at the latest data below (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), there’s only about a third of that available inventory today.

So, what does this mean? There just aren’t enough homes available to make home values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there would need to be a lot more people selling their houses, with very few buyers!

Newly Built Homes

People are also talking a lot about what’s going on with new construction these days, which may cause concern as to whether homebuilders are overdoing it. The graph below shows the number of new houses built over the last 52 years:

The 14 years of underbuilding (shown in red) are a large part of the reason inventory is so low today. Basically, builders haven’t been building enough homes for years, which has created a significant deficit in supply.

While the final blue bar on the graph shows that is ramping up, and is on pace to hit the long-term average again, it won’t suddenly create an oversupply due to the large gap required to make up. It is also worth noting that in most markets, builders are being intentional about not overbuilding as they did during the bubble.

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

The last place inventory comes from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. Back during the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.

Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from the Federal Reserve to show how things have changed since the housing crash:

This graph illustrates that, as lending standards got tighter and buyers were more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw back around 2008.

The forbearance program gave homeowners options for things like loan deferrals and modifications that they didn’t have before. And data on the success of that program shows four out of every five homeowners coming out of forbearance are either paid in full or have worked out a repayment plan to avoid foreclosure. 

What This Means for You

Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. According to Bankrate, that isn’t going to change anytime soon, especially considering buyer demand is still strong:

“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”

Bottom Line

The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – if you would like to discuss the current market and concerns you may have, give us a call today!

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As dedicated realtors, we understand that selling a property often goes hand in hand with managing the contents of that property. That's why our team also offers estate sales for clients (and even for those who aren’t!). With our estate sale expertise, you can enjoy a streamlined and comprehensive approach to selling your property while reaping several additional benefits.

First, having an estate sale as part of your real estate transaction can significantly expedite the process. By decluttering and liquidating unwanted items, we transform your property into a more appealing space for potential buyers. This not only helps to speed up the selling process, but also enhances your property's appeal, ensuring you get the best return on your investment.

Second, our estate sale services provide a seamless and hassle-free experience for you, the homeowner. We handle all aspects of the sale, from organizing and pricing items, advertising and managing the event, and donations afterwards. This means you can focus on the other important aspects of your situation, like beginning your home search, navigating the other details of an estate, etc., all with confidence and peace of mind.

We understand that many of our estate sale clients find themselves navigating significant life changes and challenging situations, such as coping with the loss of a loved one or making the decision to downsize. We consider it an honor to serve and provide our support during this time; we are dedicated to crafting a smooth and stress-free experience, ensuring that you can concentrate on what really matters. 

Bottom Line

Contact us today to discuss how our comprehensive estate sale services may benefit you and your family!

Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.

While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the “unicorn years”, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. 

Let’s take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.

Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below):

As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers!

There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:

“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge – your primary household expense doesn’t change when inflation rises – and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines

For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. This is due to traditional seasonality in home price appreciation that will most likely be misinterpreted; here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.

As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.

Deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating!

Bottom Line

The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not always true! We would love to connect, and have a conversation separating fact from fiction with reliable data!

If you are part of Gen Z, we need to chat! According to the latest Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 30% of Gen Z buyers transitioned straight from living under their parents’ roofs to owning their own homes. Gen Z is eager to put down roots, achieve financial independence, and turn to homeownership!

If you’re interested in pursuing your own dream of homeownership, here’s some information you may find helpful on why and where your peers are buying.

The Reasons Gen Z Want To Become Homeowners

A recent survey by Rocket Mortgage identifies some of the top motivators driving Gen Z buyers to purchase a home:

“Of those surveyed, 34% said that starting or growing their family was their main motivation to buy a home. . . . Along with growing a family comes establishing a home base.” 

Another key reason the survey says Gen Z wants to buy is because homeownership can give them more stability (20.8%). That’s because buying a home allows you to stabilize what’s typically your biggest monthly expense: your housing cost.

When you have a fixed-rate mortgage on your home, you can lock in your monthly payment for the duration of your loan, often 15 to 30 years. If you keep renting, you don’t have that same benefit, and you won’t be protected from rising housing costs which has been the trend. Growing up in a post-recession era, Gen Z values this stability and investment.

Gen Z’s Next Stop: Where Are They Making Their Moves?

If those are reasons that you may also be considering purchasing, here’s some information on where your peers are finding their homes! According to a recent Lending Tree survey, Gen Z buyers are focusing on more affordable areas to help boost their buying power and offset the challenges that come with today’s mortgage rates.

Many Gen Z buyers still want the convenience and excitement of city life, but also value the affordability, open air, and space more suburban areas offer. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, explains:

“. . . they want to live in a city, but they also want to be close to nature.”

Locating a home that offers both of those things requires expertise. Working with a trusted real estate professionals (*hint* we can help!) can help you find a home in your budget AND desired area. Your agent will know the most affordable neighborhoods to search in. They can also highlight the amenities and features that location offers and how those align with your goals. Many young homebuyers find that the North Georgia areas check these boxes, as residents can enjoy easy access to Atlanta and surrounding cities, while being closer to more tranquil landscapes such as Lake Lanier, North GA mountains, stunning parks, and all the amenities these areas offer!

Bottom Line

If you’re a member of Gen Z and are just getting started on your homebuying journey, or if you want to learn more about the process, it’s important to connect with a trusted real estate agent. If you are ready to discuss options, give us a call!

The housing market continues to shift and change, and in a fast-moving landscape like we’re in right now, it’s more important than ever to have a trusted professional on your side. 

Jay Thompson, Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains:

“Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.”

Unfortunately, when information in the media isn’t clear, it can generate a lot of fear and uncertainty for consumers. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says:

“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”

But it doesn’t have to be that way. You can lean on an expert to help you separate fact from fiction and get the answers you need. We receive multiple questions regarding headlines and information that applies at a national level, but the right agent can assist you in figuring out what’s going on at the national level AND more importantly, in your local area. 

Experts have in-depth knowledge of the industry and can provide context using data you can trust, so you also know how current trends compare to the normal ebbs and flows in the housing market, historical data, and more.

Making a move is a potentially life-changing milestone; while there are challenges with any market, transaction, or even in homeownership itself (lets be honest, no one loves when the water heater goes out!), a trusted professional can provide knowledge and insight to empower buyers and sellers to make well-informed decisions.

Bottom Line

If you are buying or selling in the North Georgia area, are looking to make a move to Georgia, etc., and want sound advice and trusted information, lets chat!

If you’re a homeowner, you might be torn over whether or not to sell your home right now; in fact, this is one of the most frequent conversations we are having! Maybe that’s because you don’t want to take on a higher mortgage rate on your next home. If that’s your biggest hurdle, understanding your equity may be exactly what you need to help you feel more comfortable making your decision moving forward!

What Equity Is and How It Works

Equity is the current value of your home minus what you owe on the loan. And recently, that equity has been growing far faster than you may expect. Over the last few years, home prices rose dramatically, and that gave your equity a big boost very quickly. While the market has started to normalize, there’s still an imbalance between the number of homes available for sale and the number of buyers looking to make a purchase. And it’s because homes are in such high demand that prices are back on the rise today. Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, a property data provider, explains:

“Equity levels were high even during the recent downturn, and now they are going back up and better than ever.”

How Equity Benefits You in Today’s Market

With today’s affordability challenges, that equity can be a game changer when you move. Here’s why. Based on data from ATTOM and the Census, nearly two-thirds (68.7%) of homeowners have either paid off their mortgages or have at least 50% equity (see chart below):

That means roughly 70% have a tremendous amount of equity right now.

Once you sell your house you can use your equity to help with your next purchase. It could be some (if not all) of what you’ll need for your next down payment. By leveraging your equity, you may have the opportunity to secure this larger down payment on your next property, potentially reducing your overall loan amount and mitigating the impact of increased rates. And, if you’ve been in your current house for years, you may have even built up enough equity to pay in all cash, avoiding borrowing altogether. Additionally, utilizing your equity strategically may help in qualifying for favorable lending terms, contributing to a more cost effective mortgage arrangement.

Bottom Line

If you’re planning to make a move, the equity you’ve gained can make a big impact. To find out just how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase, we would love to connect and get the conversation started!

Sources: keeping current matters, attomdata, Census 

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*Another “favorite” is Smallwoods photo and art frames! We have 3 of their wood framed signs in our home, and recommend them to clients decorating their new spaces all the time!

Is Now the Right Time??

We hear it time and time again in this market -  “I want to maximize on the equity in my home, but how do I sell without getting stuck without a place to go, or not being able to pay these high prices when I buy?” We have outlined some possible solutions that have been helpful for our clients; combining these with knowledgeable agents who understand this fast paced market and the negotiation strategies needed to succeed, you don’t have to feel stuck! 

1. Discuss timing with your real estate professional (give us a call!).

While home prices are expected to cool slightly, they are still forecasted to rise about 3.6% in Georgia in 2022 (national figures are trending anywhere between 2.9% to 5.7% based on the market). And experts predict mortgage rates will slowly rise in 2022 from the historic lows we have seen, with many foreseeing 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year. Pierre Debbas, NYC real estate law firm managing partner, says “there may be a slight correction in pricing, but if anyone is expecting pricing to come down significantly, they’re going to be in for a rude awakening”. Timing your sale/purchase where you are still able to sell for top dollar, yet purchase before prices and mortgage rates continue to rise, may be a wise option. 

2. Planning ahead can help ensure a smoother transaction.

Discussing your options for between closings with your real estate professional and family/friends prior to listing can help manage expectations on all sides. We are often able to work out convenient scenarios for our clients, such as rent back situations. This is where you close on your home, so you have the funds to purchase your next one, but you rent it back from the new owner for a designated amount of time while you close/move in to the next one. Not all listings/markets will result in these conditions however. If necessary, is there a family member or friend you could stay with before closing on your new home? Is a short term rental a possibility for your budget? Planning ahead will go a long way towards a headache free move!

3. Explore home purchase programs.

If you are looking for an option to bypass the scenarios listed above, we can assist you in looking at home purchase programs such as Homeward. These are companies that will purchase your next home for you, and you rent it back from them (with the rent accrued and paid back at closing so you aren’t paying while you still have the mortgage on your current home); you go ahead and move in while your current home is for sale. Once it sells, you take that equity and purchase your new home back from the program. 

If you are weighing your options when it comes to selling or buying, let’s discuss whether now may be the right time! Give us a call at 678-749-9889!

Is 2021 the Year to Size-Up?

2020 was definitely a year for change, with many lifestyle adjustments and plenty of time at home. Many were forced to get creative with their use of space, but some realized that certain options were not doable in their current situation or layout. 

Here are a few of the top requested spaces that many individuals and families created, or are realizing they may need:

1. Designated fitness area

Source: decoist.com

2. School space

Source: bhg.com

3. Home office

Source: home-designing.com

4. Outdoor living space

Source: surroundslandscaping.com

5. More square footage

Source: pinterest.com

 Last year impacted the needs of many, and some are recognizing that the home in which they currently live might not fit their lifestyle now. If you have a makeshift office or school space that isn’t functioning well for your family, if your attempts at exercising at home aren’t working due to limited private space, or even if you are just spending more time within your four walls than you ever expected, now is a great time to review your options!

With an inventory drop of 22% over the last year and home price appreciation at 7.3% year-over-year, it is an incredible time to sell. Inventory has decreased and demand has increased, most likely increasing your home equity. This is great news if you are a homeowner and thinking about selling. And with interest rates at historic lows, it’s also an excellent time to buy!

If you are weighing your options when it comes to selling or buying, let’s chat! Give us a call at 678-749-9889!